In 2022, my country's new energy vehicle sales are expected to increase by 47 percent year-on-year
Pe 14 decembrie, Chen Shihua, secretarul general adjunct al Asociației Producătorilor de Automobile din țara mea, a declarat la Summitul pentru prognoza dezvoltării pieței auto din țara mea din 2022 că este de așteptat ca vânzările de automobile noi în țara mea să ajungă la 27,5 milioane în 2022, o creștere-anală-anală de 5,4 la sută . Vânzările de vehicule cu energie noi vor ajunge la 5 milioane, în creștere cu 47 la sută-față de-an. Problema aprovizionării cu cip va mai exista anul viitor. Furnizarea de cipuri va atinge un echilibru strâns până la sfârșitul anului viitor.
Furnizarea de cipuri va fi în echilibru anul viitor
On the basis that the cumulative sales of new cars in my country's auto market in the first 11 months of this year have reached 23.489 million units, the China Automobile Association predicts that my country's total auto sales in 2021 will be 26.1 million units, a year-on-year increase of 3.1 percent . Among them, the sales volume of passenger vehicles was 21.3 million units, a year-on-year increase of 5.6 percent ; the sales volume of commercial vehicles was 4.8 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 6.4 percent ; the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 3.4 million units, a year-on-year increase of 1.5 times.
Chen Shihua analyzed that in 2021, due to the increasing shortage of automotive chips in the third quarter, the monthly trend of my country's auto market will be characterized by highs and lows. From January to October 2021, there will be a gap of about 750,000 vehicles in my country's auto market due to chip supply issues. Considering the next two months, the shortage of chip supply will lead to a reduction of 1.3 million to 1.4 million vehicles in my country's auto market this year.
Asociația de automobile din China prezice că tendința pieței auto de anul viitor va fi inversă, arătând caracteristicile scăzute înainte și ridicate. Chen Shihua consideră că deschiderea Jocurilor Olimpice de iarnă în prima jumătate a anului viitor va avea un anumit impact asupra producției de companii-conexe automobilelor din nordul Chinei, iar problema aprovizionării cu cipuri va continua până anul viitor. Furnizarea de cipuri va atinge un echilibru strâns până la sfârșitul anului viitor.
Regarding the trend of my country's auto market in 2022, the my country Association of Automobile Manufacturers estimates that my country's total auto sales in 2022 will be 27.5 million units, a year-on-year increase of 5.4 percent . Among them, the sales of passenger vehicles were 23 million units, an increase of 8 percent year-on-year; the sales of commercial vehicles were 4.5 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 6 percent ; the sales of new energy vehicles were 5 million units, a year-on-year increase of 47 percent .
Chen Shihua said that in addition to chips, there are multiple factors that are conducive to the development of the auto market next year. For example, in 2022, my country's macro economy will continue to recover steadily, macro policies will promote automobile consumption, epidemic prevention and control will continue to improve, overseas demand will be strong, chip supply will gradually recover, and new energy vehicle exports will continue to increase.
Chen Shihua believes that from the perspective of long-term development, my country's automobile market is still in the transition stage from the early stage of popularization to the later stage of popularization, and the sales of new cars are gradually shifting from the incremental market to the stock market. Although there were fluctuations in my country's automobile market in 2018, throughout history, the developed countries also experienced fluctuations of about 2-4 years in the popularization stage. Judging from this law, the production and sales of my country's automobile market is currently at the end of a short-term adjustment, and will maintain a moderate upward trend in the future.
Piața vehiculelor cu energie nouă poate intra într-o perioadă explozivă
Fu Bingfeng, vicepreședinte executiv și secretar general al Asociației Producătorilor de Automobile din țara mea, a subliniat că în 2021, cererea consumatorilor de pe piață va continua să arate o tendință de îmbunătățire și îmbunătățire a calității, iar producția și vânzările de automobile se vor menține în continuare un creștere constantă și există multe puncte luminoase. Producția cumulată de vehicule cu energie nouă în primele 11 luni a depășit 3 milioane, iar volumul vânzărilor a fost aproape de 3 milioane. Este de așteptat ca volumul anual de vânzări să atingă 3,4 milioane, o creștere--anual de 1,6 ori. Comercializarea vehiculelor cu energie noi a intrat într-o nouă etapă de creștere explozivă, care s-a mutat de la politic-condus pe piață-în trecut.
In Fu Bingfeng's view, a new round of technological revolution is empowering the transformation of the automobile industry and accelerating the progress towards "electrification, networking, and intelligence". important strategic choices for development. The continuous improvement of people's living standards continues to drive the consumption upgrade of the automobile market, and the proportion of mid-to-high-end automobile sales has increased year by year, which has also brought new development opportunities for automobile companies. He also pointed out that external adverse effects such as anti-globalization, continued epidemics, and high raw material prices have also brought uncertainty to the development of the auto industry. my country's auto industry should be alert to the possible impact of changes in the external environment.
Wang Qing, director adjunct al Institutului de Cercetare Economică de Piață al Centrului de Cercetare pentru Dezvoltare al Consiliului de Stat, prezice că cererea de automobile este de așteptat să continue să revină ușor în 2022. Volumul vânzărilor de automobile este de aproximativ 27 de milioane de unități, o creștere de 3% -5% pe an-pe an, iar modelul minim înainte și maxim pe tot parcursul anului va rămâne .
Lin Huaibin, head of IHSMarkit's light vehicle sales forecast in my country, believes that the development of new energy vehicles in China has ushered in a turning point for fuel vehicles. Considering the comprehensive cost, the current electric vehicle has reached a level that is basically the same as that of the fuel vehicle, and the cost performance advantage of the electric vehicle has been very obvious. It should be seen that while the market penetration rate of new energy vehicles is rapidly increasing, the market penetration rate of autonomous driving is also rapidly increasing. If chips can be supplied stably, my country's new energy vehicle market share will account for 17 percent -18 percent in 2022.
Mei Songlin, vice president of strategic operations of WM Motor Group, believes that the current penetration rate of electric vehicles in the new energy vehicle market has increased significantly, and the electric vehicle market is close to an inflection point of 16 percent . After crossing this inflection point, my country's new energy vehicles will enter an outbreak period, and electric vehicles must attack the mid-end market of traditional fuel vehicles, that is, the A-class vehicle market.
În acest sens, Bai Ling, un expert în cercetare în industrie de la Departamentul de planificare a produselor din Chongqing Changan, consideră, de asemenea, că în 2022, piața de vehicule cu energie nouă se va transforma treptat dintr-o mreană într-o formă de fus. Proporția va crește treptat.
